After entering the third quarter of the LED industry, it seems that the "hot" is out of control, and there is a time when the "power of the wild" broke out.
According to the "China's Roadmap for Eliminating Incandescent Lamps (Draft for Comment)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 15 watts or more will be banned from October 1, 2016. This is the final stage of the elimination of the incandescent road map, which also means that the incandescent lamp will completely withdraw from the market from October 1.
Affected by the full delisting of incandescent lamps, the stocks of listed companies have risen. Regardless of whether the gossip and incandescent lamps are on the sidelines, some mass media have said that this is a market space of hundreds of billions.
Of course, there are still some "brick homes" that do not mean that the good days of LEDs are coming soon. They say that the ban is difficult to advance largely because there are no new products that can effectively replace incandescent lamps.
Some do not know how to do it, and even say that the current market energy-saving lamps play the leading role, because they confuse traditional fluorescent energy-saving lamps with LED lights.
Of course, what's interesting is that Philips is lying in the middle of the gun. Some media said that in the past few years, Philips energy-saving lamps have refused to recall because they have detected that the actual power consumption is seriously exceeded. This has seriously affected the market image of energy-saving lamps. At that time, the Beijing Consumers Association tested 53 kinds of energy-saving lamps randomly selected in the market. As a result, only 52.83% of the energy-saving lamps met the relevant national standards. The most famous brand in the “Black List†was Philips.
Due to the test of the Beijing Consumers Association, the first recall of the Chinese energy-saving lamp industry was also born. Just after the publication of the relevant test results, the domestic brand NVC Lighting announced that it would recall its unqualified products nationwide, and consumers who purchased relevant models of energy-saving lamps could apply for a free return. However, Philips has since ignored the test results, causing the entire energy-saving lamp market to be questioned.
Of course, some media also said that due to fierce competition and even worsening of China's LED lighting industry, many international lighting giants even abandoned this field, including Philips, Osram and other sales of their lighting business, GE Lighting also chose to withdraw from the Asian market and focus on Europe and the United States. market.
Some insiders pointed out that although these giants are hard to conquer the fierce competition in the Chinese market, overall it is hard to predict whether the Chinese lighting industry is good or bad.
What we want to say is that as the important time points for the elimination of incandescent lamps approach and the market acceptance of LED lighting products matures, China's urban lighting in 2016 will usher in a wave of replacement LED lights.
According to the latest data from the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), the cumulative production of incandescent bulbs in the first half of 2016 reached 2.012 billion, and most of the incandescent products were withdrawn after October 1. According to the current market price of LED bulbs replacing 15W and above incandescent lamps, an annual replacement demand of nearly 50 billion yuan will be added.
The trend is irreversible and the road cannot be violated.
Regardless of the cruel market competition experienced by the LED industry in recent years, but not so competitive, how can we promote the rapid rise of LED penetration in such a short period of time. If we follow the "arrogance" of these multinational giants and have some arrogant attitudes, then Chinese companies can only wait for "elimination" today.
We can't deny that foreign manufacturers have technological advantages in certain areas. However, as the industry matures, technology monopoly has become history. At the same time, the continuous extension of the product line and the continuous maturity of the market have also weakened the weight of technology in the comprehensive competition to some extent.
Of course, for the Chinese LED industry, the last "globalization" threshold will leave the patent problem. This is something that everyone really needs to work together to do.
Look at this week's LED industry event ~~~
1. The incandescent lamp has completely delisted or driven the filament lamp market to continue to break out.
As of June 2016, the total export value of the lighting and electrical industry was US$17.65 billion, a decrease of 14.1% compared with the same period of last year. This is the first time in the past five years that the industry has experienced negative growth.
Among all the exported products, the export volume of general lighting incandescent products was almost the same as that of the same period of last year, and there was no significant decline.
Incandescent lamps have been delisted earlier in developed countries in Europe and America. European and American consumers are more urgent about the demand for energy-saving products that can directly replace incandescent lamps. Therefore, most of the orders for LED filament lamps received by Chinese companies come from Europe and the United States.
This also directly led to the continued fissure of the filament lamp market in the first half of this year. Some "players" with large overseas retail channels have continuously entered the market. For example, IKEA, Home Depot, Wal-Mart and other large stores have begun to get involved in the subdivision of filament lamps.
According to the statistics of the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), the global LED filament lamp market demand reached 70 million in 2015. It is expected that the global LED filament lamp demand will reach 220 million in 2016, an increase of 367%. In the next three years, with the increase in the automated production of LED filament lamps, production will rise rapidly.
As a fist product to replace the traditional incandescent lamp market, the future LED filament lamp market will reach 8 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the growth rate of export volume, the growth of European countries such as Germany, France, Denmark, Brazil, and Poland is obvious, indicating that the Chinese LED filament lamp that meets the European people's feelings has been recognized by Europeans, and the market acceptance has increased rapidly.
Zhang Hong, deputy general manager of the survey and test, said that for the American market, the export volume of filament lamps in the past few years is not very large, and product safety and light performance are also the focus of consumers.
However, as the filament technology gradually matures and can be mass-produced at the same time, at the same time, the price is expected to continue to increase as the price has dropped to a level that is generally accepted by the market.
2, LED + robot + smart factory in the end is not reliable
The automation upgrade of LED lighting manufacturing has been the focus of the industry since this year.
On September 6, 2016, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Jingsheng Electromechanical Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The two parties will carry out in the fields of industrial robots, intelligent equipment, intelligent logistics, and smart goods joint factories in the future. Comprehensive and in-depth strategic cooperation.
According to the strategic agreement, Hikvision promises to give priority to supporting the expansion of “Smart Manufacturing, Intelligent Chemical Factory†in the LED and photovoltaic fields. The company plans to use Haikang robots, machine vision systems and corresponding Software system.
The strategic cooperation between the two parties was carried out by Hikvision's holding subsidiary, Hangzhou Haikang Robot Technology Co., Ltd., and Jingsheng Electromechanical Holding Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Zhongwei Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd.
On April 9, 2015, Jingsheng Electromechanical Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to acquire a 51% stake in Hangzhou Zhongwei Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd. with a total of RMB138 million in super-raised funds. Based on the original main business, Jingsheng Electromechanical has cut into the high-end equipment industry in the LED lighting market and strengthened the layout of intelligent equipment.
In terms of specific business, LED intelligent equipment achieved revenue of 40.767 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 100.00% over the same period of the previous year. According to the report, Foshan Guoxing Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. became one of the top five customers of the company with the merger of the subsidiaries (G20-LED Lighting Summit member companies) into the consolidated statements.
As of June 30, 2016, the company's LED intelligent equipment has not been completed in the contract: the total contract value of the shipment is 7,014,400 yuan, the part of the contract of delivery is 17,775,800 yuan, and the contract amount of the delivery date is not yet 24,051,100 yuan. The total amount of uncompleted contracts was 489.103 million yuan.
The strong intervention of listed companies, whether we can open a new space for LED lighting manufacturing, we will wait and see!
3, the infrared LED market "dark tides" big factory plus horsepower
According to rumors, OSRAM plans to convert funds originally intended for LED wafer factories to IR scanning technologies such as IR LEDs. Depending on the size of the IR sensor (IR LED) and other iris recognition products, smartphone manufacturers and virtual reality systems are required.
Although it has not yet been finalized, it is reported that OSRAM plans to invest at least 100 million euros (about 750 million yuan) to the LED wafer factory in Regensburg, Germany.
Hongli Zhihui (300219), a domestic LED packaging listed company, has been actively deployed in other sub-segments of LEDs in recent years. It has also been laid out in the field of infrared LEDs (image recognition, face recognition). The company will have a first-mover advantage.
Hongli Zhihui's main subsidiary of Infrared LED's shareholding subsidiary, Xu Wei (837094), reported that the company's operating income was 25.56 million yuan, an increase of 28.83% over the same period last year.
The company is mainly engaged in research and development, production and sales of infrared LED devices and their components. The company's products include infrared LED package devices, infrared LEDTIR optical lenses and infrared LED modules.
In Taiwan, the Taiwanese factory that has the ability to produce IR LED chips is crystalline and optical, and the latter has the ability to package and crystallize.
There are about 40 identification points for fingerprint recognition and 240 iris recognition. The recognition is greatly improved. It is safer for mobile payment. The early introduction of IR LED specifications is OSRAM.
Since the application emphasizes light and thin, small-angle illumination on the mobile phone, there is a technical threshold in the rear package. Osram does the latter from the front, so the price is high. On the infrared LED chip, the Chinese mainland and Taiwan packaging factories have the price. Advantage.
Considering the rapid increase in the market share of China's smart phone manufacturers and the enthusiasm for the introduction of new functions of smart phones, the future will not rule out the domestic smartphone iris recognition market to drive some LED packaging companies to open the infrared LED market.
4, after the price increase era can not "sit in the well to seal"
On September 9th, this Saturday, a big discussion about the “post-price hike eraâ€, where the domestic LED packaging industry went, was staged in Shenzhen Qingqing World, Gaogong LED Packaging Special Forum.
The large market environment determines the trend of the entire LED industry to return to rational competition. Whether it is upstream, midstream or downstream, the vicious competition in the market for several consecutive years has indeed made many enterprises seek survival and turn for the better.
However, the price increase is a double-edged sword. If you succeed, you will be happy. If you fail, it will further squeeze the survival space of SMEs.
The price increase of packaged products is now a reasonable trend. There are two main reasons for the price increase. One is because of the rising cost of materials and other comprehensive costs. On the other hand, for some price-sensitive markets, excessive low-price competition and subsidized market behavior have gradually returned to rationality.
As for how long this situation lasts, it is hard to say that although technological breakthroughs can bring about cost reduction, the market is ultimately the dominant factor. The decision may be in the terminal application market. However, it is normal for a mature product to fluctuate at a price of around 10% with the price balance curve.
After the baptism of market competition in the first half of the year, the LED packaging industry is gradually returning to rationality. At the same time, the polarization of the LED packaging industry has gradually emerged.
“Being bigger and stronger†has clearly become the unanimous goal of many LED companies. Wang Mengyuan said, “The polarization will continue to exist in the next few years and will intensify.â€
Therefore, many companies have begun to adjust their strategic layout and have turned to high-end markets and LED market segments.
The packaging industry has experienced a process from barbaric growth to standardization, scale to standardization. Nowadays, packaged products are diversified and more need innovation drive, which should be the stage of innovation drive.
Compared with last year, the packaging industry has seen an increase in costs and a slowdown in growth. Technically, the LED package will mainly develop toward the integration and miniaturization of high power density, high light efficiency and high color gamut index.
Of course, around the flip-flop, CSP is one of the most concerned focuses of this forum.
Limited by the upstream chip manufacturers' main production capacity in the packaged chip, the cost of flip-chip and CSP decline, in addition to the market demand, a large part of the factor is the upstream capacity supply.
In addition, how to locate your own market segment is also a flip-flop / CSP vendor needs to think calmly.
At present, CSP is widely used in the field of backlight applications, and there is currently no cost performance in the lighting industry. At the price of SMD two years ago, CSP may have the advantage of replacing the general lighting market, but at such a low price, it has not seen much significance.
The application advantages of specific subdivisions such as high-power integration and backlighting will be the future of flip-chip/CSP.
Whether it is flip-chip or CSP, it is not to replace the existing LED package. Due to the diverging trend of the LED industry and technology, the majority of Evergrande manufacturers exist, and small manufacturers need to find their own market.
CSP products in the backlight, special lighting and automotive lighting market, customers have a higher design flexibility. Special commercial lighting, patio lights, projection lights, flashlights, mobile flashlights and other projection products require optical design, CSP has its own unique advantages.
Flip-chip LEDs have higher reliability than formal and vertical structures, especially high resistance to high current surges. This performance is beneficial to improve the service life and high power density of LEDs in practical applications.
The High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII) predicts that the market share of CSP and flip-chip products will reach more than 30% in the next three years, and it will also become the best opportunity for Chinese LED packaging companies to fully surpass foreign companies.
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