Solar manufacturers slow down capacity expansion in the second half or oversupply

According to the Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly report, the average three-month book-to-bill ratio for solar equipment in the fourth quarter of 2010 (as of December 31, 2010) was 1.10, the average for 2010. The value reached 1.27, which was significantly higher than the 0.97 in 2009.

Solarbuzz senior analyst Finlay Colville said, “The latest solar equipment order shipment ratio reflects continued investment in crystalline silicon and thin-film solar cells, which will drive strong capacity expansion in 2011. First-tier crystalline silicon cell manufacturers have sufficient downstream orders. , is seeking vertical integration to achieve a production capacity above GW; on the Other hand, investing in a-Si/uc-Si and CIGS thin film technologies represents new market entrants to continue to look for low-cost solutions, in addition to the unique competitiveness of First Solar, can further Challenge the dominance of crystalline silicon technology in the market.”

Through the close observation of the solar equipment supply chain, the solarbuzz solar equipment order shipment report analyzes each solar photovoltaic company's quarterly equipment expenditure data, and correlates relevant orders and revenues to the appropriate process equipment manufacturers.

The order-to-bill ratio (B/B value) is the total amount of orders divided by the total amount shipped over a specific period of time and is the ratio of equipment supply chain demand and supply. The Q4'10 order shipping ratio of 1.10 means that the equipment supplier will receive orders for about USD110 per product for every USD100 shipped.

The combined ratio analysis of orders for solar energy equipment after the merger is based on the investment in equipment in existing and emerging technology fields and can derive an industry average. One of the first-line solar cell manufacturers' new investment can be used as an industry leading indicator to assess the impact of production equipment on terminal solar PV supply and demand.

Colville added that in 2010, first-line monocrystalline silicon cell and film panel manufacturers met the market demand of 75%, and the trend of equipment supply from the solar cell manufacturing segment highlighted the scale of the overall solar photovoltaic capacity expansion is very positive. It may cause oversupply in the second half of 2011.

The order shipment ratio of solar equipment at the first-line plants reached 1.39 at Q4'10, which was higher than the average of 1.26 in the past 12 months. It is estimated that the shipment ratio of orders in this group may be lower than 1 in Q2'11, which will be the first signal for first-line solar photovoltaic manufacturers to slow down their capacity expansion; this will affect first-line solar energy equipment manufacturers in the second half of 2011 and 2012. The revenue for the first half of the year.

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