Today, the LED lighting market is in a state of “segregation,†and old and large manufacturers and even new companies and overseas companies have poured into this field. In this situation, the LED lighting market is expected to achieve substantial growth in the coming years. Fuji's economic forecast for the domestic LED lighting apparatus market in Japan in 2008-2012 is that the overall lighting apparatus market is expected to grow by 8.6%, and LED lighting will increase by more than 4 times from 13.3 billion yen to 57.8 billion yen. To the whole 12%. The global development momentum is also very rapid. The white LED lighting market will continue to grow at an annual rate of 50% after 2006, and the scale will reach approximately 160 billion yen by 2009. In the future, this growth momentum will be further accelerated and it is estimated that by 2012 it will increase to nearly 3 times of 2009. In addition, the use of white LEDs as lighting will also be expanded in the future, and it is expected that in 2012 it will exceed the overall 20%.
Fuji's forecast for the domestic lighting market in Japan. The total lighting equipment market in 2012 is expected to increase by 8.6% from 2008 to about 488.8 billion yen. Among them, it is expected that the LED lighting apparatus market will expand to more than four times the scale, and the proportion of lighting fixtures will exceed 10%.
LED lighting low prices
According to a survey conducted by the Nomura Research Institute, the global white LED lighting market will reach nearly three times the size of 2009 by 2012. The proportion of white LEDs used for lighting in the entire white LED market will also exceed 20%, which will have an increasing impact on the LED market. The chart was made by GreenDeviceMagazine based on information from the Nikkei Market Survey.
The background for this trend is the global trend toward obsolete incandescent light bulbs. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan and the Ministry of the Environment also proposed to stop the manufacture and sale of incandescent light bulbs before 2012. Lighting manufacturers responded by saying that they had stopped production. Although fluorescent lamps have now become the first candidate for replacement of incandescent bulbs, LED lighting with long lifespan and excellent temperature characteristics has rapidly become a candidate for replacement of incandescent bulbs after achieving improved performance.
In addition, convenience stores that are contributing to the energy saving of lighting by taking the opportunity of Japan's revision of the energy conservation law also show strong interest in introducing LED lighting. “Increase in the introduction of (high replacement cost) high roof plants, gasoline petrol stations, and street lamps†(to sell Lumidas Japan, an LED lighting product of Korea FAWOO Technology). Unlike fluorescent lamps, LED lighting does not dim at low temperatures, so it is also very easy to use when used as a refrigerator and cold room lighting.
Consumers also place high expectations on LED lighting. A survey conducted by lighting and construction-related companies revealed that "even if the initial introduction cost is high, it is considered to be adopted as long as the advantages of the design are outstanding." The overall answer is 19.7%. In addition, the respondents who "consider the use of costs and reflect the cost-effectiveness ratio" have reached a majority of 58.5%, showing that consumers have a very high desire to import. The reason for actively considering importing at high prices is not only energy saving, but also has advantages such as long life, small size and light weight.
A questionnaire survey was conducted on the business and lighting-related technicians. About 20% of the respondents pay more attention to design advantages than costs. The most attractive of the advantages of LED lighting is long life. Followed by small and lightweight. The data comes from the Nikkei Market Survey.
Some listed companies successively involved
Faced with such high customer expectations and rapid market growth, the old and large manufacturers in the lighting industry started to launch LED lighting '>LED lighting new products from around 2008. Moreover, some listed companies in other industries have also begun to actively participate. In September 2008, Sharp brought the basic lighting and downlight products into the market. The electronic component manufacturer ROHM listed the downlight product at the end of 2008, and in the spring of 2009, it launched a base lighting product for shops jointly developed with the design company. In addition, Yamato Building Industry also developed a store-oriented base lighting product with Kyocera and NABESHO.
Big manufacturers have stepped into the LED lighting market for ordinary consumers. In 2008, Sharp entered the market through listed basic lighting products. After that, some listed companies such as Roma, Daiwa Housing Industry, and Mitsubishi Chemicals also launched products one after another. Mitsubishi Chemical also announced that it will launch products in 2010.
In July 2009, Mitsubishi Chemicals launched a direct-piped LED lighting replacement for fluorescent lamps. The product was jointly developed by Mitsubishi Chemicals and LEDTECHELECTRONICS in Japan and Cisco in Japan. It can be mounted on 40W fluorescent lamps. Although Mitsubishi Chemicals is a factory equipment and environmental equipment manufacturer that uses hydrogen generation equipment as its strength, the company believes that “it is not about the economic situation, and it is able to complement each other's business†(Mitsubishi Chemicals Planning and Development Director, Pig Sakura Changbo) , decided to get involved in LED lighting business.
In addition, Mitsubishi Chemical also announced its involvement in the LED lighting business. In 2008, the company acquired the GaN-based LED that emits near-ultraviolet light from the Mitsubishi Electric Wire Industry. It will make full use of its advantages in materials technology such as phosphors and be involved in the field of lighting as the final product. The company plans to launch products in 2010 and use the name "Verbatim", a high-profile optical disc brand not only in Japan but overseas, to expand its sales in Europe and other regions.
It is not just Japanese companies in other industries that are eager to see a booming new market. The overseas lighting giants such as Philips Lighting in the Netherlands and Osram in Germany are also taking advantage of the popularity of new lighting such as LEDs to find opportunities to increase market share. For example, in addition to general lighting, Philips is also working on special lighting such as searchlights and indirect lighting.
LED is expected to catch the fluorescent light
Why are other industries and overseas companies so actively involved in the field of LED lighting, why is the market so active? This is because the luminous efficiency and price that have been recognized as the subject of LED lighting have been improved, and all of them exceed the results of the upcoming LED lighting of fluorescent lamps. "(LED lighting) will be able to compete with fluorescent lamps before and after 2012" (Dali Fufu, chief planning director of LED devices at Matsushita Electric's LED device development center).
First of all, the luminous efficiency of LED chips is increasing year by year. The development blueprint announced by the Japan LED Lighting Promotion Association (JLEDS) in 2008 expects that the luminous efficiency of white LED high-efficiency LEDs will reach 120lm/W by 2009 and 150lm/W by 2015. But at that time, some manufacturers also stated that "in the next 2 to 3 years, 150 lm/W can be delivered to the market" (Yoshida Yamada, vice president of the Japanese business at Philips Electronics Japan) "has reached 120 to 130 lm/W, and We have also achieved a volume of 150 lm/W products" (said Tasaki Denki, deputy director of Niyara Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.), and the speed of efficiency improvement over the past one or two years has exceeded expectations. In general, LED lighting has the effect of power loss and temperature increase, so the luminous efficiency (comprehensive efficiency) of the entire lighting apparatus is mostly 3 to 50% lower than that of the LED chip, and is only about 50 to 70 lm/W. However, recently, products with an overall efficiency of 80 lm/W or more are not uncommon. Although the level has not reached the high-efficiency high-frequency lighting (HF) type fluorescent lamp whose general efficiency is considered to be nearly 100 lm/W, it is already approaching the fluorescent lamp.
The Toshiba Lighting LED bulb new product mentioned at the beginning of the article claims a total efficiency of 81.9lm/W. From the small reflective product that was launched in 2008 to a maximum of 68lm/W (white), it has increased in one year. About two percent. If we continue to improve at this speed, it is expected to launch more than 100 lm/W products by 2011-2012.
In addition, the price that is regarded as another subject of LED lighting is also steadily declining. From the point of view of the overall cost (total cost of lamps and electricity), it is sometimes better than fluorescent lamps. Taking a bulb-type LED lighting equivalent to a 60W incandescent bulb as an example, the total cost is around 10,000 yen during the life time of 40,000 hours. When the incandescent light bulb with a life of 1,000 hours is used for 40,000 hours, the total cost is more than 50,000 yen, and even if it is a bulb-type fluorescent lamp, it should reach 16,000 yen (Figure 6). If the cumulative lighting time exceeds approximately 14,000 hours, the overall cost of the bulb type LED lighting is lower than that of the bulb type fluorescent lamp Note 3). Assuming that this 14,000 hours is used for 10 hours per day, in the long run, LED lighting is more advantageous.
JLEDS forecasts the price of LED chips, and it is expected that the cost per unit of brightness will be lower than 1 yen/lm, which is recognized as a popular tipping point by around 2012. However, this goal is also likely to be achieved in advance. "It is falling at a rate of over 20% per year. It is estimated that it will continue to decline for a long time" (Tianzaki, Nichia Chemical Industry).
From the perspective of the luminous efficiency of the components, the gray high-efficiency products of 2007 were about 80 lm/W, and in 2009, they reached 120 lm/W. Products with a total efficiency of 80 lm/W or more are not uncommon. It is expected that the efficiency of inverter fluorescent lamps will exceed the efficiency of 90 lm/W~100 lm/W before and after 2012.
Toshiba Lighting's products are targeted at comparing the cost of LED lighting with incandescent and bulb-type fluorescent lamps. LED bulbs, despite their high price but low power consumption and long life, can be said to be most efficient in terms of overall cost. The price refers to the actual selling price in home appliances stores.
The end of the manufacture and sale of incandescent lamps, the realization of LED's that exceed the luminous efficiency of fluorescent lamps, and the universal price of 1 yen/lm. From these three points of view, the popularity of LED lighting will accelerate around 2012. The lighting manufacturers and the new companies involved in the rapid expansion of demand after three years, launched the LED lighting business.