The fastest growing application in the car:
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Car information service
The fastest growing market in the automotive industry (especially in Western Europe) is in-vehicle information service electronics for security, navigation, information and entertainment. According to market research firm Strategy Analytics, the entire automotive telematics market will have sales of $3.7 billion in 2008, and sales in 2009 are expected to reach $4.5 billion. Nearly 85% of the European telematics market (including terminals, components and services) is concentrated in five countries: Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain. An important factor driving the adoption of in-vehicle information service solutions in Europe is the stricter safety regulations prohibiting the use of mobile phones in cars (without hands-free accessories). Moreover, due to traffic congestion, Europeans spend an average of 275 hours per year in the car. This situation is not much different in China. Traffic congestion in China is growing. Therefore, the functions that people need for daily communication, information acquisition, entertainment and comfort will gradually be completed in the car.
According to market research firm iSuppli, traditional enterprise entertainment systems such as radios and CD-ROM drives are being replaced by portable digital devices that support downloadable content. To accommodate this trend, automakers are trying to install connectivity features that connect traditional built-in car radios with next-generation mobile consumer products such as cell phones, MP3 players, GPS devices and other portable media platforms.
Figure 1 The fastest growing segment of the car, especially in Western Europe, is Telematics for security, navigation, infotainment
In addition to allowing hands-free phones and connecting portable consumer devices to in-vehicle information service networks in cars, in-vehicle information service platforms enable Internet and email access, GPS navigation, and on-demand Web services such as Information about traffic, real-time news, pay-TV, remote diagnosis and maintenance, and even the possibility to pay for and automatically make an emergency call in the event of an accident.
The most widely accepted communication protocols for in-vehicle information services are USB and Bluetooth. The sound quality and hands-free features provided by Bluetooth technology prevent the driver from distracting. At least 20% of the accidents are caused by the driver's distraction. Other wireless technologies used in automotive applications are satellite radio, cellular networks (GSM/GPRS), Wi-Fi, ZigBee, ultra-wideband, and WiMax. These latter technologies are ideal for high bandwidth transmission of rich multimedia content. Due to its flexibility and low cost, ZigBee will be increasingly used in automotive in-vehicle information services to replace cable connections in non-critical applications such as in-car broadcasting and sensor control. For current systems, WiMAX can provide faster speeds and bandwidth. At the 2008 International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the BMW Sauber F1 team partnered with Intel to launch a demo. In this demonstration, visitors can remotely control the F1 car, even though the car is located hundreds of meters away. American automaker Chrysler recently announced an advance in advanced mobile WiMAX. The technology uses a 800x480 pixel touch screen to provide GPS navigation with PC-style Internet browsing.
According to market research firm iSuppli, the overall automotive information market will grow from $38.3 billion in 2006 to $53.8 billion in 2006, driven by connectivity demand. Shipments of portable navigation devices alone will triple. The shipment of portable navigation devices in 2012 will increase from 14 million units in 2008 to approximately 42 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7%. The latest car hard drive has a storage capacity of more than 40GB and can store multimedia information such as songs and movies. The demand for new connection-oriented infotainment systems creates tremendous opportunities and challenges for chip vendors. The sales revenue of the automotive infotainment application semiconductor component market in 2012 will increase from $4.1 billion in 2006 to $7 billion. The main challenge for chip vendors is complexity. The need for standardization, scalability and interoperability will grow. In order to encourage the popularization of in-vehicle information service solutions without compromising safety, reliability and quality, cost reduction is also crucial.
In-vehicle information service functions are usually managed by a single controller. Controllers with medium to high levels of computing power, high bandwidth, and high memory capacity can manage advanced features such as voice recognition, video, and software-defined broadcasts. In-vehicle information services typically require a digital signal processor (DSP), field programmable gate array (FPGA), or complex programmable logic device (CPLD). In addition to in-vehicle information services and infotainment systems, security systems will generate considerable revenue. Automotive safety is also a growing and stable market for semiconductors, also due to regulatory influences. Advanced safety systems integrated into new car models include lane departure warning systems, collision avoidance and pedestrian detection systems. The implementation of these technologies is very important to improve safety on increasingly crowded roads. In 2006, the number of road traffic casualties in the United States, Europe, and Japan totaled 94,000, and various plans are expected to reduce road traffic casualties to 63,000 in 2010. Data shows that if the driver's reaction speed is half a second faster, more than half of the accidents can be avoided. In Europe, one-third of accidents are caused by lane changes or leaving the lane. Two-thirds of the accidents were caused by inattention.
Pedestrians are the most vulnerable. In Europe alone, traffic accidents involving pedestrians and bicycles in cars have caused approximately 9,000 deaths and 200,000 injuries. Some examples of electronic systems for automotive safety applications include anti-lock braking systems (ABS), electric power steering (EPAS), adaptive cruise control (ACC), stability control, and airbag systems. High-end car models also feature advanced features such as automatic cruise control, blind spot monitoring, lane departure warning, night vision and driver sleepiness alarms. Automotive companies are using a variety of bus interconnect systems to reduce the complexity of wiring, thereby reducing weight and cost, while increasing fuel efficiency. The most common standards are the US J1850, Controller Area Network (CAN), and Local Interconnect Network (LIN). About 80% of CAN transponders and microcontrollers on the market are used in automotive applications.
The transition to new data transfer protocols such as FlexRay will significantly reduce fuel consumption. The FlexRay protocol is also a good candidate for implementing x-by-wire technology. X-by-wire is replacing hydraulic and mechanical control systems with processor-driven electronic control components. The Flexray system is currently used in some luxury cars and is expected to become popular in the automotive industry in the next few years. In addition, Ethernet and Media Oriented System Transport (MOST) are very promising technologies, especially for diagnostic and automotive multimedia applications.
Table 1 Global Automotive Semiconductor Market by Product Category, 2004-2009 (Unit: US$1 billion)
Source: BCC Research Group
Software is the key to cars
The growing complexity of automotive information systems will continue to drive operating systems and software providers to develop optimized software platforms, regardless of the integrated circuit or bus protocol. The large number of features included in the car has changed the way car manufacturers use software. Software will be a key differentiator for automotive systems. Software is extremely important for implementing advanced features such as speech recognition, video compressors, and error elimination. Moreover, the automotive industry is in great need of a stable Russian operating system. More than one operating system will be required in the next generation of complex enterprise systems. These operating systems include Microsoft's Windows car operating system and open source software for the Linux operating system. These software will play an important role in the car's in-vehicle information service. Wind River Systems recently released a new software platform based on commercial Linux optimized for cars. This software accelerates the time-to-market of innovative applications for in-car infotainment systems in the automotive industry. This Java environment is ideal for sharing resources in an in-vehicle information service system. For important mission functions, real-time operating systems (RTOS) such as QNX and Osek/VDX are the preferred systems. QNX is the most commonly used real-time operating system for more than 180 models. In addition, major EDA (Electronic Design Automation) companies have recently enhanced their tools for the automotive market.
For example, Cadence is the official software solution provider for the BMW Sauber F1 team. MathWorks has released a new release of the Simulink environment. This development environment automatically and automatically generates code that is compatible with the Autosar standard.
The last area to be developed in the automotive industry: green cars
One of the most important drivers of the automotive market is undoubtedly an environmental issue of increasing concern. Automakers are actively moving toward "green" technology due to stricter environmental regulations. These technologies will reduce pollution emissions, improve engine efficiency and use alternative energy sources such as electric and hybrid vehicles, clean diesel engines and fuel cells. Only electronics can reduce the pollution emissions of cars while ensuring a high level of safety and comfort. This issue is attracting the attention of vendors in the market and has been the subject of discussion at the SEA World Congress. The SEA World Congress is held in Detroit, USA, in April each year. This issue will also be a hot topic at the e-trade show held in Munich, Germany in November this year.
Market research firm predicts that by 2010, hybrid vehicles will account for 3% of light vehicles sold worldwide. Paumanok predicts that by 2010, HEV (hybrid electric car) production will exceed 3 million. By 2015, this number will grow to 8 million. Hybrid vehicles also have great potential in China. General Motors is producing hybrid fuel vehicles for the Beijing Olympics in China. Shanghai GM, a joint venture between General Motors and Shanghai Automotive Industry Co., Ltd., will mass-produce hybrid vehicles. At the end of 2005, Toyota, the world's second-largest automaker and eco-car pioneer, has begun producing its popular PRIUS hybrid fuel vehicles in China.
Hybrid electric cars will use more electronic components than traditional cars. While the most expensive component used in a hybrid vehicle is a battery, power electronics is the second most expensive component, even accounting for 20% of the total cost of a car.
In addition to the 32-bit processor, the semiconductor components (inverters/converters) that represent the core of electronic control of hybrid fuel vehicles also include drivers, DC/AC, AC/DC and DC/DC converters, insulated gate bipolar A regulator composed of a transistor (IGBT), a power FET, and a power diode. Major IGBT and power FET vendors include Fairchild Semiconductor, Infineon, International Rectifier, Ixys, STMicroelectronics and Vishay Intertechnology. Inductors, transformers, filters, capacitors and many other passive components are also vying for applications in automobiles. Passive components will reach $1.7 billion in 2010 and will reach $4.6 billion in 2015.
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